The impact of increasing university participation on the characteristics of apprentices

Description

During the last decade undergraduate university enrolments have grown considerably. To explore whether young people who would have previously chosen an apprenticeship have instead entered university, this analysis uses data from the Longitudinal Surveys of Youth (LSAY) to compare the characteristics of apprenticeship-bound with university-bound young people and to look at if they have changed over time.

Summary

About the research

Apprenticeships remain an important source of skilled workers in Australia; however, commencements have not kept pace with the skills demand projected in the previous decade. During that same decade, undergraduate university enrolments grew considerably. In investigating whether young people who would previously have chosen an apprenticeship have instead entered university, this study uses data from the Longitudinal Surveys of Youth (LSAY) to compare the characteristics of apprenticeship-bound young people with those who are university-bound and to determine whether the characteristics have changed between 2007 and 2019.

For this study, the term ‘apprenticeship’ denotes an Australian Apprenticeship, that is an apprenticeship or traineeship and a learning pathway that combines paid on-the-job training with formal study with a registered training organisation (RTO) under a contract of training.

Key messages

• The profile of a young person who is likely to undertake an apprenticeship rather than enter university has remained largely unchanged since 2007. This analysis did not reveal any large-scale relative change in the characteristics of young people entering apprenticeships or university, although there may be effects not captured by this study.
• Those more likely to undertake an apprenticeship than enter university in 2019 were those with the following characteristics: male, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander, Australian-born, speak English at home, have attended a government school, or reside regionally and rurally.
• Conversely, individuals who scored higher on Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) mathematics or reading achievement tests at the age of 15, as well as those from higher socioeconomic backgrounds at the same age, were more likely to pursue higher education.
• Migrants and first-generation Australians have become less likely than Australian-born young people to undertake an apprenticeship than attend university.
• More young people are selecting university study but there remains a significant pool of young people who may be attracted to apprenticeships through targeted career education and improved matching of career aspirations to study pathways.
• Employer demand for apprentices plays a large part in boosting apprenticeship numbers, meaning that strategies to sustain employer interest in offering apprenticeships are likely to complement career education efforts.

Executive summary

Since 2012, until a recent surge during the latter stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, apprenticeship commencements have been in decline (NCVER 2023a). Not only were commencements declining, but the training rate in 2016 was well below the 2002 level, despite considerable employment growth in the period (Karmel 2017). This period of apprenticeship decline coincided with an increase in university enrolments, attributed to the introduction of the demand-driven system (DDS), which uncapped funding and expanded university access during the period 2012—17.

Some commentators have theorised that the policy designed to increase access to university has also played a role in reducing the pool of young people who would otherwise have taken up apprenticeships (see, for example, Noonan & Pilcher 2017; Gore, Ellis et al. 2017). Research by Karmel, Roberts and Lim (2014) set out to investigate this theory not long after the demand-driven system had been initiated. Their research, which focused on male trade apprentices, found that the growth in university participation arose from academically lower-performing young men from higher socioeconomic status (SES) backgrounds. They also found that apprenticeship-bound and university-bound young men were two distinct groups, in terms of demographic characteristics.

With concerns about shortages in apprentice-skilled occupations still current, this study revisits the work of Karmel and colleagues by using data from the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) to compare the characteristics of 19-year-olds who chose either an apprenticeship or university pathway. For the purpose of this study, the term ‘apprenticeship’ refers to an Australian Apprenticeship, that is an apprenticeship or traineeship and a learning pathway that combines paid on-the-job training with formal study with a registered training organisation (RTO) under a contract of training. LSAY begins when participants are aged 15 years, with this study using data from the 2003 (Y03); 2006 (Y06); 2009 (Y09); and 2015 (Y15) commencing cohorts. The only LSAY cohort who made an initial post-school pathway choice during the period of the demand-driven system and expanded university places was the 2009 (Y09) commencing cohort, in 2013.

We focus on 19-year-olds for three reasons. Firstly, school leavers represent the new supply of future workers, so their post-school choices are an important indicator of future workforce skills: when we think about the supply of potential apprentices we tend to think of young people. Secondly, those aged under 20 years represent the largest share of domestic undergraduate university enrolments (Department of Education 2023). Thirdly, the LSAY collects data until the of age 25, but survey participants without university education tend to drop out at higher rates as the survey progresses, which makes analysis of the apprentice cohort difficult.

Karmel, Roberts and Lim’s (2014) investigation of the university impact on the pool of apprentices focused on male trade apprentices. In this study, we also include females and trainees because they comprise a significant and important segment of current activity and future skills demand. We also apply a different methodological approach to improve the interpretability of results. For these reasons, the results of this study are not directly comparable with those of Karmel, Roberts and Lim (2014).

Two separate analyses were conducted to answer the research questions. First, the characteristics of young people undertaking apprenticeships and those undertaking university in the Y15 cohort (the most recent LSAY cohort to turn 19 years) were compared. This provided a benchmark for comparing apprentice characteristics with earlier cohorts. The second analysis involved pooling all the LSAY cohorts to examine how characteristics identified in the first analysis may have changed over time.

Findings

In 2019, the young people more likely to undertake an apprenticeship than university by the age of 19 tended to have the following characteristics: male, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander, Australian-born, have attended a government school or had lower PISA^[1] maths and English scores, were of lower SES or resided regionally and rurally. While this profile is unsurprising, what is interesting is the results of our study’s second analysis, which reveals the characteristics that indicate a changed likelihood of undertaking an apprenticeship.

Since 2007, migrants and first-generation Australians have become less likely to undertake an apprenticeship than attend university. This might be explained by migrants’ aspirations for themselves and their children, along with changing migration policy priorities across the period, an issue that will be explored further below. At the same time, those who speak a language other than English at home have become more likely to undertake an apprenticeship than attend university, which may be explained by an increasing population of Australians who speak a language other than English at home, regardless of recent migration status.

Has increased university participation changed apprentice characteristics?

The results of this study reveal that the change in the characteristics of young people who are likely to undertake an apprenticeship over a university pathway has not been substantial. One analysis of the additional students attracted to university by the demand-driven system indicated that they tended to be from lower-SES backgrounds and were lower academic achievers than past university entrants (Productivity Commission 2019). However, our study reveals no change to the likelihood of such young people choosing an apprenticeship, indicating that increased university access for lower socioeconomic youth appears not to have impacted on the pool of potential apprentices.

Young migrants and first-generation Australians have become less likely to undertake an apprenticeship than university, which may be a reflection of changing migration policy, whereby skilled migration is prioritised (Boucher & Davidson 2019). A larger share of skilled migrants than Australian-born citizens have completed a bachelor or higher qualification and we know that higher-educated parents tend to hold higher educational aspirations for their children than lower-education parents (Homel & Ryan 2014). It is the children of those skilled migrants with high aspirations who have been captured by LSAY.

Overseas-born Australians made up approximately 13% of apprenticeship commencements in 2004 but represented a disproportionately larger share of commencements in Machinery operators and drivers (32.7%); Labourers (26.6%); and Community and personal service workers (25.2%) occupations (NCVER 2023a). The share of overseas-born commencements in those occupations have all fallen since 2004, even though Community and personal service workers and Labourers occupations are still predicted to have strong demand (National Skills Commission 2021). While migrants are not a large component of the pool of potential apprentices, sector-specific initiatives may be considered where attracting culturally diverse apprentices is viewed as valuable.

We must also recognise that many of the characteristics of young people did not change in this analysis and what this might signify. Young people have not become more or less likely to undertake an apprenticeship than attend university based on their gender, Indigenous status, geographic location, maths achievement or whether they attend public or private school. Given that a variety of policies and programs aimed at boosting commencements from some of these groups have been introduced, it may initially seem disheartening to learn that they have not become more likely to enter an apprenticeship.

That said, it is important to note that this analysis compared the characteristics of young people undertaking apprenticeships with those undertaking university studies at the age of 19. Any overall increase or decrease in participation from the cohorts included in the study would not be detected, only any relative change between university and apprenticeships.

Additionally, as discussed in more detail below, we know that some groups, such as women, more often commence apprenticeships later in life (age 25 years and over) and those choices are not reflected in this study of 19-year-olds (Holdsworth & Turner 2022; NCVER 2023a; Pope 2021; Productivity Commission 2020). Similarly, there may be cohorts not included in this study who have transferred their preferences towards or away from undertaking apprenticeships.

Concluding remarks

Research on the career choices of young people indicates that encouraging people with aspirations to attend university to consider apprenticeships is unlikely to be a productive strategy (Choy et al. 2021). Moreover, the significant proportion of the young people who do not go to university represent a pool of potential apprentices. Adolescents still tend to hold limited and ill-informed career aspirations for themselves, meaning there is scope for career education to influence the decision to take up an apprenticeship (Baxter 2017; De Bortoli 2021).

The career aspirations of young people are just one part of the picture: employer demand for apprentices is an influential factor in apprentice commencement numbers. The employer appetite to employ apprentices can wax and wane, according to policy, funding and broader economic conditions (Karmel 2017). The recent sharp rise in apprenticeship commencements in response to the Commonwealth’s Boosting Apprenticeship Commencements initiative (BAC)^[2] suggests that a pool of potential apprentices is available when employer demand increases; however, it must be noted that the pandemic created unique economic and labour market conditions, which may have amplified the attractiveness of apprenticeships. Investigating the balance of funding, conditions and supports that contribute to sustaining employer motivation to employ apprentices must form part of any strategy to attract young people to apprenticeships.

Should we be worried that increased access to university is reducing the availability of young people to take up apprentices? This study suggests not, although there are limitations to what this analysis could reveal. There are other groups of young people who may be making different choices who weren’t captured by the LSAY variables. If the number of young people willing to undertake an apprenticeship has shrunk, other avenues that might explain that phenomenon could be explored, including investigating alternative paths to both apprenticeship and university, such as entering the workforce or not undertaking either work or study.

The overall population of young people is large enough to fill the available places in both further education pathways, implying perhaps that the question of whether young people remain attracted to apprenticeships reverts to the broader issue of appeal and opportunity. An apprenticeship must present an attractive pathway to young people, alongside their other options. Equally, for young people to take up apprenticeships there must be employers offering them and willing to support them. The question of how to ensure this is best answered in a paper more extensive than this.

[1] The Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) is an international assessment that measures 15-year-old students’ reading, mathematics and science literacy every three years.

[2] BAC was a time-limited measure during the economic recovery from the impacts of COVID-19. A 50% wage subsidy was paid to employers of new apprentices for the first year of the apprenticeship between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2023.