All publications

The distinction between VET and higher education in Australia is blurring. The purpose of… Show more

The distinction between VET and higher education in Australia is blurring. The purpose of this paper is to examine – through the conduct of a case study of engineering qualifications (AQF6) delivered in Victoria – how education and training providers and students are likely to respond to different fees and funding arrangements under the student entitlement model. Show less

Using data from the 2009 Student Outcomes Survey, this report looks at the pay-offs of completing… Show more

Using data from the 2009 Student Outcomes Survey, this report looks at the pay-offs of completing of a vocational education and training (VET) qualification on a range of outcomes, and identifies the groups for whom completion is particularly important. Show less

This conference paper was presented to the Third International Congress on Technical and Vocational … Show more

This conference paper was presented to the Third International Congress on Technical and Vocational Education and Training, 13–16 May 2012, in Shanghai. It argues that there are two key factors behind Australia's good record of employment for young people: high levels of post-school education with the consequence that there is not a large cohort of people in their mid-to-late teens flooding on Show less

This paper aims to explain the extent to which variation in apprenticeship completion rates can be… Show more

This paper aims to explain the extent to which variation in apprenticeship completion rates can be attributed to factors relating to 'culture' of the employer and apprentice.  Show less

This paper was a keynote address at the AVETRA conference held in Canberra in April 2012. Karmel… Show more

This paper was a keynote address at the AVETRA conference held in Canberra in April 2012. Karmel notes that industry is arguably the key stakeholder in the Australian vocational education and training (VET) sector and discusses six areas of research which raise questions about VET and industry, either in terms of how public training funds are allocated or the educational principles on which VET Show less

In this 9 minute interview, Steve Davis talks with Tom Karmel about the report 'Attrition in the… Show more

In this 9 minute interview, Steve Davis talks with Tom Karmel about the report 'Attrition in the trades'. This report investigates attrition in the trades by comparing the rate at which tradespeople leave their occupation with that of professionals. It also determines whether attrition is influenced by economic conditions, and if a trade can provide a good start to a career in the professions. Show less

This report investigates attrition in the trades by comparing the rate at which tradespeople leave… Show more

This report investigates attrition in the trades by comparing the rate at which tradespeople leave their occupation with that of professionals. It also determines whether attrition is influenced by economic conditions, and if a trade can provide a good start to a career in the professions. The report concludes that attrition in the trades is no higher than in the professions; the rate of Show less

Pre-vocational programs, including VET in Schools, are increasingly providing a pathway into… Show more

Pre-vocational programs, including VET in Schools, are increasingly providing a pathway into traineeships in the same way that pre-apprenticeships are an established route into apprenticeships in the traditional trades. This report uses data from the 2010 Apprentice and Trainee Destination Survey and finds that the benefits of pre-vocational programs are mostly apparent for early school leavers Show less

Looking at apprentice and trainee data and employment data back to 1995, we find that declines in… Show more

Looking at apprentice and trainee data and employment data back to 1995, we find that declines in apprentice commencements lead declines in total trades employment by four quarters, whereas declines in trainee commencements appear to lag declines in employment in non-trade occupations. Based on this historical relationship, the reduction in apprentice and trainee numbers suggested a much larger Show less

This paper investigates what might be the vocational equivalent to completing senior secondary… Show more

This paper investigates what might be the vocational equivalent to completing senior secondary school. Three dimensions are considered: volume of learning, educational complexity and labour market, and other outcomes at age 25 (the last based on the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth). The report finds that no vocational pathway can be considered to be equivalent to Year 12 in a literal Show less

In this 30 minute podcast, Steve Davis talks with Tom Karmel, Erica Smith and Damian Oliver on… Show more

In this 30 minute podcast, Steve Davis talks with Tom Karmel, Erica Smith and Damian Oliver on insights from research into apprenticeships.textInterested in the story behind the numbers, Tom discusses the findings from his work on individual completion rates that show occupation and employers' size matters, with the implication being that the relationship between employer and apprentice is Show less

In this paper the authors explore the relationship between social capital at age 15 and… Show more

In this paper the authors explore the relationship between social capital at age 15 and participation in education and training at age 17. Using data from the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) 2003 cohort, the analysis shows that social capital does play an important role in influencing educational participation. For both males and females, participation in school-based activities Show less

This paper was presented at the joint Skills Australia and Industry Skills Councils 2011… Show more

This paper was presented at the joint Skills Australia and Industry Skills Councils 2011 conference,  , at the Crown Conference Centre, Melbourne. It addresses the challenge of measurement in workforce development planning, and discusses the role of the various players in labour markets and the information they need to make optimal decisions. Show less

In this paper, the authors identify various educational paths involving school and post-school… Show more

In this paper, the authors identify various educational paths involving school and post-school study and assess the effectivness of these in relation to post-school outcomes at age 25 years. They use the 1995 cohort of the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth and find that, for males, undertaking an apprenticeship after completing senior secondary and university are attractive paths. For Show less

This overview provides a brief summary of the report, by Chris Ryan. It describes how Ryan analysed … Show more

This overview provides a brief summary of the report, by Chris Ryan. It describes how Ryan analysed the range of pathways available which offer genuine alternatives to completing secondary school. It finds that for those students who run the risk of dropping out, the best pathway for males is completing an apprenticeship, whereas for females completing Year 12 provides the best outcomes. Show less

In this position paper, NCVER's Managing Director, Dr Tom Karmel, argues that the submission of… Show more

In this position paper, NCVER's Managing Director, Dr Tom Karmel, argues that the submission of vocational education and training student data should be mandated as a condition of registration for all registered training organisations, including private providers. This will ensure a comprehensive data collection that gives a realistic view of training activity occurring within the sector, Show less

This paper was originally developed to help the Training and Skills Commission in South Australia… Show more

This paper was originally developed to help the Training and Skills Commission in South Australia consider the pathways between elements of the vocational education and training (VET) system, how they are working and what improvements can be made. It has been revised to make it national in scope. The authors reveal that quite substantial numbers of VET graduates go on to university level study or Show less

This paper updates an earlier paper by Karmel and Mlotkowski and looks at how the probability of… Show more

This paper updates an earlier paper by Karmel and Mlotkowski and looks at how the probability of getting a job, in addition to wages, impacts on completion rates. It finds that for trade apprentices the premium (or extra wage completing an apprenticeship brings) attached to becoming a tradesperson is a significant factor, whereas for non-trade trainees the training wage matters more. It also Show less

Low completion rates for apprentices and trainees have received considerable attention recently and … Show more

Low completion rates for apprentices and trainees have received considerable attention recently and it has been argued that NCVER seriously understates completion rates. In this paper Tom Karmel uses NCVER data on recommencements to estimate individual-based completion rates. It is estimated that around one-quarter of trade apprentices swap employers during their apprenticeship. Taking this into Show less

This paper was presented to the 2011 TAFE Governance and Regulations Forum, 1 March 2011 in… Show more

This paper was presented to the 2011 TAFE Governance and Regulations Forum, 1 March 2011 in Melbourne. Tom Karmel argues that neither a simple definition of vocational education and training (VET) nor qualification levels are helpful. He suggests that VET is distinguished from higher education by different funding and regulatory arrangements, and teaching and learning styles. What confuses the Show less